Can the Scottish team at last break the New Zealand curse?

Rugby action
The All Blacks have made three changes to the side that defeated Ireland

Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks

Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh Date: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Match moment
Graham crossed the line in the narrow loss to the All Blacks in 2022

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.

Lauren Davis
Lauren Davis

Tech enthusiast and digital strategist with a passion for exploring emerging technologies and their impact on society.